Originally Posted by
Bucking Bar
Good post and your skepticism is well placed.
I think his point is those of us on both sides who were harmed by the merger are actually uninformed and have no idea how bad it could be. Of course, this position is the opposite of ALPA's position before reaching an agreement to support the merger. For it's part ALPA has certainly kept it's end of the bargain.
What would have been is only hypothetical. Just because he writes Delta and NWA would have lost billions and have thousands on the street does not make it so. In fact, fleet optimization points to a contrary conclusion as does the hundreds of millions in costs which we have borrow money to finance. Would Delta and NWA's business partners continued to have done business with us absent a merger? Of course they would have.
What bugs me is those who deny what was and those who wish to re-write history so it looks like they saved us. Frankly the MEC did a good job. Denying what Delta brought to the table really isn't necessary.
ALPA did what was best for ALPA and what was best for Delta & NWA pilots given that they could not stop what was coming and wanted to avoid a US Air style meltdown. That is all true. Still, for a lot of pilots this merger was, is and will be bad news for years to come. Apples and Oranges. Two different things.
I've given up posting numbers from trends observed in form 41 data since that really makes people mad. But, the trends I observed three years ago have only accelerated since the merger. As ACL observed, a person could look at the repeated displacement bids and conclude that the Company is getting pilots in position for a furlough. I'm still thinking furlough letters will go out in September of this year, to be effective in December, right on schedule with the the DC9 retirements and end of the seasonal flying.
As always, hope that I am mistaken and I certainly have been wrong about a lot of things this fall. I see no reason to put money in the market right now, yet this fall we have seen valuations based on PE which have exceeded historical highs. Meanwhile ACL sounds like his investments have made so much money the SEC is camped out in a van in front of his house. I hope he is right about new bases, new jets and hiring. I'm pretty sure we have got to actually make some solid money before any of these trends reverse their direction.
Bar;
Agree with most of the first.
As for the second part of your post, I have stated that I have been told. I do not necessarily interject my opinion. Also, something that people fail to see or understand is what I am talking about with jets etc are part of a five year plan. Forward looking past the second hill or over the horizon as you have stated. I bet we see many more MD-90's and hiring in the next year. (probably sometime this spring summer)
Do me a favor and go talk to your CP. See what he has to say about our staffing future. Get it from him and not from me. Also, go take the time and go talk to the guys in marketing etc. See what they will say without an audience. Places like a road show are places that many things are not stated because it is on record. IMO a lot is being talked about but it cannot be put on record.
I do beleive that if you want to see more jets and more bodies you should be Pro-JAL. If we do not get a sustainable deal in the Tokyo hub either with or without JAL we may see some rapid growth but IMHO it will be short lived and unsustainable. With this deal it will be slower but sustainable growth. I know we want to see quick success, but with our side we need to be very careful because the fall is that much farther and louder. (I know slow will be happy I see it this way, and the simple truth is that this deal can work well for us the pilots of Delta)
To go on further, our management team is being very cautious about 2010 and that is good. Our yield trend line get better after the second quarter. If the forecasting goes as planned you will see some major changes around here. I could go on, but we will leave it at that for now. Bet we see some sort of plan about future bodies in the next month or two.
As for the SEC, yep, I do not trade Delta stock except what is in my 401K account from the merger. It is just personal choice and the SEC has not called me, just small potatoes here!
I have made plenty and will keep that stock. We are way above our average, and I expect a correction, but I do see the stock going up in the next 12-18 months.
I will still state that I bet we see new hires sometime in 2010 unless these guys see a change in our modeling, which is possible, and that we MAY see a decision and announcement on a 100 seat jet. In reality I bet we see it sooner. There are plans that they have not fully announced and when they do, it will be easy for many to see that they cannot do them with out new hires.