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Old 01-11-2010 | 06:57 AM
  #24257  
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acl65pilot
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From: A-320A
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Originally Posted by Check Essential
You could be waiting a very long time for DAL to be solidly profitable.
Airlines have been running without profits since Orville and Wilbur.
We're kinda like a public utility.
Fact is, they can pay us more without going back into Chapter 11.

Latest news says JAL won't be taking our $1 billion after all.

The company can afford to help us out a bit before 2013.

I am not saying that they cannot pay us more, my point is that with billions a year in losses the time it will take for them to agree to the rates we want will be measured in parts of decades not years.
Simple fact is we agreed to these rates and our PWA only becomes amendable, The RLA is for now not going anywhere, and the new Administration has stated no airline strikes. What motivation does the company have to pay us one cent more? NONE.
If we (not by giving them our shirt, but by not thwarting good sustainable business decisions) allow an agreement like JAL to transpire where our flow of top dollar traffic goes up by a magnitude of five to ten, then the business is able to pay off some of that 17.5 billion in debt, buy new airframes, grow the business, etc, and become willing to truly sit at the table and negotiation a contract that compensates you for what you are worth.
As much as I would LOVE to ignore all of the stupid business decision that this company has made (too many to list), the simple fact is that what I see them doing is very good for us. I am looking at this whole AF/KLM, and JAL deal as setting the ground work for a super carrier that will have no issue competing with anyone anywhere. That means that there are better chances that we will get a contract we want, no one we can just barely live with.

What do you think will happen to all of those new international flights to Asia, and the NRT hub if JAL turns their back on us?

Initially I see a ton of growth for us and another run at a different Asian carrier. That appears great for you and I, but it is the business fighting to stay alive in the worlds second biggest economy. It will prove very expensive and unsustainable unless we win someone like ANA. (Lot shot)
Fast forward to the time it takes for these actions to be rationalized. We have hired probably over 1000 pilots to try an win the East, and when it fails, we will cut a ton of flying, possible furlough, and have super stagnation and backward movement. Dramatic, yes, but very real.

Go to 2012 when we open our contract, take my worst case about, and just think about our chances at the table. We will be working for an airline that probably will have over 25 billion an debt and half of a well thought out plan working. Our feed to these flights will be gone, the international flights will be gone, and the dominoes will keep falling. In effect we will be in the same financial shape we were in 2003-2005 but as twice the size and twice the debt. We will pull about 23 billion a year in revenue and that will just not pay the bills. The giant will be a fallin.

I know this is probably just too dramatic for many of you, but it is the ugly side of getting our butts kicked in Asia.

I do think that we are going to get JAL.

As a few have very vaguely referenced on here, the other option besides JAL is very costly and very very risky. Well I just spelled it out for ya.
If you want to make C2K or have a half a-- chance of getting it, get on you knees and pray that we get the JAL deal.