As of right now I would say pretty tough. The last person that went to PHX was back during the October bids, and that was for only one PA31 slot. As of right now, everyone in the upcoming February and March class should expect to be OAK or PDX based.
There is a lot of talk about a possible big bid coming out in the very, very near future for openings in multiple bases. Once that bid clears out some of the senior employees, or the ones willing to move everyone’s chances will be better about getting based where you want.