Originally Posted by Splanky

There is always good argument on both sides about an upcoming, prolonged, shortage. I have been hearing these arguments since I started the whole thing in the late 90s. But, there has always been something stopping or preventing it. Twice now, a potential long-term shortage has started but then stopped from other factors.

The arguments for a future shortage is sound. However, have you taken into account new external factors that are yet unforeseen? I would very much like to see the shortage a reality. However, the realist/pessimist in me says something will get in the way again.

Don't discount airline managers. Though we may not agree with the greed/self-serving underlying most of their decisions it does not make them stupid. The airline lobby might yet find another 'solution' to a shortage. Or perhaps as the economy returns and airlines start to recover oil will shoot up again. And then airlines might just consolidate capacity into larger but fewer airplanes.

Also, don't forget about TSA's fervent efforts to chase our passengers away. And the effort of the government to get high speed rail going. I don't think there will be a return of demand for air travel. A recovery yes, but not a return.