Get real, my regional has had guys on furlough for 1.5+ years, and if nobody picks a trip up they junior man someone. I picked up 70 hours in 2009 (at time and a half thats $4,250!). And guess what, they just recalled the last of the furloughs! Who would have thought? Picking up open time has ZERO impact on furloughs. Nobody picks it up=Jr. Man. Someone picks it up=someone doesn't get Jr Manned and can go home and be with their family on their day off. When we got the flying back and attrition caught up, then we hire guys. Which believe it or not is happening now.

Here is how it works at my airline:
Airline gets a schedule 3 months out, looks at staffing levels, puts the block hours in a computer, and it tells them how many pilots they need/hor many lines it will generate. If it is 400, and we have 380 then they run the airline thin. If it is 400 and we have 320, then we hire. If it is 400 and we have 460==>FURLOUGH!

Obviously month by month they obviously do not hire/furlough. So they look at the forecast for months to come and come paired with historical data and come up with a number. And if I pick up a turn and make 6 extra hours of pay, that has ZERO impact on them bringing a furlough back.