Originally Posted by
LostInPA
Respectfully dissenting:
"Mountain skill" of pilots has nothing to do with this. I'm assuming that was in jest? Some QX folks may disagree.
Replacing 37-seat (possibly weight restricted) DH2's with DH4's that have near twice the seating capacity is not a good option unless traffic levels can support it. Some markets like EGE/ASE can sustain year-round mainline and multiple hub operations, but smaller cities such as DRO/GJT would do just fine with seveal 37 seat trips. We as DH8 pilots get dazzled by the DH4 easily since, hell, it's still a Dash, but with a massive steroid problem. It is, and is meant to be, an easy transition for us.
Main point being; it's twice as big as the baby Dash. Not good planning sense, unless diluting your yields in small markets is your only goal. It's nice to look at that beautiful low CASM and breakeven that BBD advertises, but if you're only filling the airplane with cheap fare buckets, your RASM has taken such a beating that the smaller plane may be your better option.
So anything new at PDT?
I agree 100% with your analysis regarding the economics of the Q4 in some of the markets in our Rockies. Lynx, even serving a market such as Grand Junction, was only averaging about 31 or 32 filled seats on their flights...the loads were terrible. So, the plane is not ideal for all the markets in the Rocks...
With that said, I think you'll see SkyWest pick up some Q400s at this point. You have us pulling out of the market with our Q202s (We were the launch customer for that airplane, designed for our flying in the Rockies) and Lynx going away. So it looks like the time would be ripe for SkyWest to throw down some Q400s into these markets now. They could make a killing into ASE (Aspen) and EGE (Eagle/Vail) with the Q4. They could probably send it out on other routes as well and get some decent loads...could really replace some of the CRJ700 flying they are doing already.
My guess is SkyWest will pick up some, maybe all of the Lynx Q4s. They already have had Q400s in their hangar in Tucson, their mx personel are supposedly trained somewhat on the plane (at least this is what I have heard), and SkyWest has a tight relationship w/ Bombardier. They now have a lock on the Rocky Mtn. market out of DEN. Add to this the increased saftety margins with the Q400...well, in my opinion, it's a no brainer.
Taking a CRJ700 into ASE and EGE is crazy. It's an accident waiting to happen and everyone knows it. They have great pilots at SkyWest, but that's some high-risk flying taking that type of airplane into those cities. I would not want to depart EGE in a CRJ700 w/ an engine failure just after V1. I would also not want to do a single-engine balked landing in the CRJ700 out of either of these airports. Even our single-engine procedure in our Dash 8 Q202 out of EGE is the craziest thing you've ever seen...so, I still think there may be some good incentives, up to and including safety in addition to economic ones, for SkyWest getting Q400s.
It's not as good as the BAE-146 that AirWhisky flew into these mountain markets, but it's probably the next best thing in terms of overall safety margin and capacity. Additionally, I have heard, and it's is strictly word of mouth, so it can be taken with a grain of salt (of course), that SkyWest has already purchased 5 Dash 8 Q400s. I will believe it when I see it, but I don't think that it is far-fetched in my opinion.