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Old 02-12-2010 | 03:38 AM
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satchip
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Joined: Apr 2007
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From: Flying the SEC
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Originally Posted by forgot to bid
Reddog, no offense, but are you assuming I think anything out? I have plenty of proof that is not the case.

May I rephrase? The talk was that there would be fewer military pilots in the years to come. Part of that obviously is that some would say no. I remember even in the mid 90s having military guys at LFI tell me no way would they go down to $30Kish to start at the airlines and I'm sure in 2010 guys really say no way to the turmoil in this industry. Which again goes back to the problem, if military guys aren't as willing and good civilians walk away then who will be left with in the years to come?

What I was adding on to was from conversations I've heard from guys whose kids are currently in training. Lots of UAVs, i.e. not building loggable flight time. They're promised a real aircraft for the next assignment but wouldn't that put them close to hitting the magical 20 year point and therein its worth it to wait to 20 years and then go airline if you desire. Is that right? I'm asking because I don't know but to me if it is the case it lends creedance to the idea that there won't be as many USAF guys coming out for maybe the next decade or until guys hit the 20 year point. Anotherwords their might be a lull.

Now as to the Navy, I hadn't heard this until recently but I guess the Navy is doing a lot more helos then fixed wing? In fact this one CA had both sons select helos over fixed wing because they said thats where the Navy is going. Now that I think about it, you guys get to fly both fixed and helos over your time in the Navy right? I guess you'd have the fixed wing time necessary to go straight to a legacy part 121. I withdraw the helo comment as also bolstering the thought that there would be fewer pilots.

You win Mr Huey pilot.

So is it true? Is flying helicopters the second most fun thing you could do with your hands?
You are right, Mr. Cow Tipper. (I just threw up in my mouth a little for saying that) More and more Mil guys are realizing the cost benefit of staying in till retirement outweighs getting out. When the million dollar pensions were around and the TSP wasn't it made sense to get out as soon as you could. Now 20 years is much more beneficial. I'm sure glad I stayed around.

Also getting out at 100K and going it at 50K at a major is doable, going in at 30K at a regional for who knows how long is not attractive at all. Fewer pilots in total delaying entry into the labor market can have two effects. It can raise the price of labor (good for us) or it can pressure employers to find new sources of labor ie multi pilot license (very bad for us).

Also, if I were a cargo pilot, I would be very worried about the future. I predict you will see UAVs operated by UPS/FedEx within 20 years.