Originally Posted by
acl65pilot
Super;
Part of the forecasting is determining the next downturn. Many think that it will be prior to 2012, FWIW, and because of that they need to sharp shoot the numbers.
There is/are diverging results of the modeling, and until they start pointing in the same direction caution will be taken.
I personally don't see 2010 being a good year for us (DAL or the country). Just as bad as the housing market hit our banks, the commercial real estate market rears its ugly head starting this summer. Already, nearly 50% of those loans have defaulted (or so I heard on the news this morning). This will put a tremendous strain on the already fragile financial system. Many banks will not survive it because they are too far leveraged into these bad loans. This can very easily be the tip of the iceberg for a double-dip recession. Don't forget, we still lost 400,000 jobs last month.
Finally, what's scary is that our federal government can not, and is not taking in enough money to pay the interest on the debt they've created. Considering they can print money, they probably will. But China has warned use officially three times now not to do that. Equally worrisome is that China recently decided not to finance as much of our debt as they usually do.
Foreigners cut Treasury stakes; rates could rise - Yahoo! Finance
That's going to put our currency in a tailspin when the federal government starts printing money in order to pay the debt that we owe.