In 2012 retirements will not kick in at UPS because the 65 year old pilots already realized that the age of 65 is discrimination. They will force an age change to 70. If anyone dare stand up to them they will scream about capitalism, entitlements and seniority.

Just prior to 2017 when you think retirements will accelerate, an old crusty geezer, Larry King, who surely isn't dead yet, will point out that we don't want to lose our most qualified captains at 70, it just isn't fair, besides it's a seniority system and the "new" financial meltdown left them with no retirement, so it's bumped to 75. 70 after all is discrimination.

Just prior to 2022, our fiat money, fractional reserve system collapses completely and the world enters it's 2nd depression in 15 years. Our beloved elder Captains, at least the bottom half, fight over first officer positions that remain. They were still fully vested in the stock market, just trying to line up a few more ducks...when the SEC shut the doors. They lost everything. How can they possibly retire? Besides 75 is discrimination. The youngest pilot is now 65... the new 40.

Getting close to 2027, geezer pilots start to die off in the cockpit. Accidents rise and finally, finally the door is open for a safer form of travel. The UAV era has arrived!

Sorry for the negativity, I just got my furlough notice last week...