I've been losing sleep over this. Latest rumor around SKW is that INC is contemplating joining Star Alliance as an independent airline...

Why, you might ask?

Obviously the regional business model as it stands today is questionable going forward. Larger regionals with lots of cash are contemplating how to best set themselves up for whatever the future may hold.

RAH is obviously striking out on their own, but with huge associated risks...they may not be able to compete for future feed contracts if they are deemed to be a dangerous competitor.

SKW apparently is also thinking about how to go independent, but with a twist...how do you go indie but avoid creating antagonism with your feed customers? Star Alliance might be the answer...

SKW goes independent, but with the concurrence of UAL.

UA Scope has a major (possibly catastrophic), loophole allowing codeshares. We have already seen this in action with that joint venture thing.

UAL circumvents their scope, and effectively transfers domestic narrowbody flying to SKW vie Star Alliance codeshares. SKW pays 50 seat rates plus 7% BHO

UAL gets cheaper labor and a risk-sharing partner, SKW gets independence without jeopardizing their existing UAX feed.

If this were to happen, it would obviously set the precedent for the industry and force drastically lower domestic/narrowbody payscales.

If this is contractually possible, even the possibility would give UA major leverage in their upcoming negotiations.

Thoughts? Anybody know more details about UA scope as it pertains to code shares?

BTW, this is not just some fantasy scenario that I made up.