Originally Posted by
goaround2000
Here's my non-flame-bait educated guess on how this will all play out.
5 years from now:
Midwest brand, service, name and original hub (MKE) gone. Midwest Legacy crews all gone, in part due to the awful deal they will get on the integration, and the fact that Republic as a whole will shrink. Could very well happen
Fleet reduction, most 50 seats gone, some 70 seaters gone. UA and DL don't renew due to the obvious competition that the new and improved Frontier will bring into their markets. Most buses will go away and replaced in some ratio with either 190's or BB's new toy the C-series. Or, Delta management lets DCI morph into codeshare, aka Alaska Airlines. As a member of the Board and holder of Midwest assets, it would have been impossible for Republic's buy to have taken place absent Delta's knowledge and acquiescence. So far there has been no indication they were bothered by this competition and they're happy to have MidWest pax code sharing on DL.
Frankly, it seems DAL seems to have decided it does not want to participate in segments of the market and is pleased to have someone (nearly anyone) else feed their network on an "at risk" basis. Their management of their own DCI system hasn't been efficient and currently it is designed to be an open system.
Frontier is the new name for all integrated branded operations. However, due to continued pressure from other LCC's (SWA, Airtran, possibly even JetBlue), the business model shifts from a service driven product (Legacy Midwest, current Frontier), to a wholesale lesser quality product. They'll need to keep "Frontier" (and I'm surprised they'd let "MidWest" go) since they need these operations to side step the scope constraints at some of the aforementioned carrier that outsource their flying. While it is a distinction with little difference, these C Series jets can not be operated at a DCI carrier without being so painfully obvious a scope violation that ALPA would be forced to object.
ALPA is happy to look the other way on the phrase "does not reduce Delta flying."
End result:
RAH will be about half the size it currently is, but still around. Most Frontier and Midwest Legacy crews gone due to decaying QOL, pay, and issues with SLI. Most of the buses gone with a 1-2 or even 1-3 ratio of replacement. Most market share shifting over to Airtran and Southwest. All and all, a bad thing for everyone involved and everyone in the industry. Good chance of being right about that. However, some of United, US Air and to a lesser extent Delta's capacity will probably be up for grabs.
Uptimistc (yet unrealistic) result:
SLI goes through without a scratch, everyone is happy, the company thrives without much resistance from competition, and the new and improved Frontier integrated pilot group negotiates an industry leading contract.
Time will tell, again, this is just a humble opinion, and educated guess.
goaround