Really? You obviously missed 2006-2008, there was a pretty severe shortage, the worst regionals were hiring guys with brand new commercial-multi licenses and many regionals were paying hiring bonuses to those with previous 121 time. It would have continued and worsened had the economy not gone off the cliff at the same time age 65 went through, because while new student starts were up somewhat, they weren't up *that* much.

Now, of course Kit & Co always implied the shortage would be at the major airline level, not just at the crappiest regional airlines. The existence of our current 2-tier system ensures that the majors will always have a steady supply of qualified, eager candidates. However, even the crappy regionals having to fight for qualified candidates is a very positive development because it is the ability of majors to play regionals off of each other that has traditionally kept their labor costs low, and therefore exerted downward pressure on major airline payrates and work rules. The shortage will return within a few years, it will again be confined to regional airlines, but even this will be a positive development for the profession as a whole.