Originally Posted by
acl65pilot
Deadhead;
Maybe we would get slots out of the AMR deal. At a min I would expect us to get a terminal. Preferably AMR's underutilized one. I would venture to bet that the DOJ would make them give all of Jet Blue's LGA slots to LUV.
UAL-CAL would be the strongest competitor for us. They would have a good route network with about as little overlap as possible. CLE would go away, but other than that, they work really well
If we are looking out for only us UAUA-LLC would be the on we would want. Why? Past actions predict future results. They would have major labor issues. Add to that, there is overlap in DCA/IAD with their two fortresses.
As I said before, AMR is a fearsome competitor. They already have superior O&D hubs...the top 4 in the top 5 US metro areas, and 5 in the top 7. They own SA, which prints money.
By contrast, DAL only has 1 solid hub in the top 10 (ATL). That's right, one. Only two in the top 15.
If they were to buy someone like UAL, they would be untouchable. But that is a maybe/maybe not with anti-trust.
OTOH, they could buy JB, and lock up NYC, and relegate DAL to an also-ran staus. This would almost FORCE DAL to purchase ALK, because without it, the "four corners" scenario could be in serious jepardy, poison pill or no...
I don't think the UAL/LCC deal is as bad as everyone thinks. UAL traditionally has NEVER had a viable east coast presence. They've tried for years to make IAD work for them, and it has never gelled. What LCC brings (at least the east part) is a top 5 O&D market (PHL) and an excellent north/south connecting hub with an OK (not great) O&D catchement area. LCC also brings a really decent Carribbean presence, along with a decent number of European destinations.
If I were running things, if I did the UAL/LCC deal: I'd cut LAS loose, and pare back to a holding action in DEN and PHX, which are blood baths right now. I'd pair back IAD to a focus city and use DCA as my main driver in the area (slot controlled = $$$). Move the N/S connecting traffic to CLT.
With that said, a UAL/CAL deal would be a better option, though. Gives the combo 3 of the top 6 O&D markets. GREAT PAC and EUR coverage. Probably adequate SA coverage as I think UAL is sitting on some decent, unused SA authority that they used to run out of the MIA crew base.
DAL NEEDS the NYC slot swap done. It's a "must have". AMR can squish us there with not a lot of effort, and they are just starting to wake up. And they want payback for the JAL thing.
The ALK thing also needs to be done. It makes the whole west cost vunerable to a competitor that can pay the right cash. SWA could nuke the whole setup with what's in their petty cash box.
The debt getting paid down is being done so for a reason. They are preparing the war chest.
Nu