Originally Posted by
TOGA LK
If a replacement 150-seat plane isn't officially titled, then I would say the soonest you'll see a production run will be 10 to 12 years away. Look at the backlog the 787 created. NWA was to place the first ones in revenue operations in 2008, so much for that benchmark. 10 to 12 years is a long time, the price of fuel is as volatile as the countries it comes from. 10 to 12 years can make and break a company, look at the fall of the greatest in history, about 7 to 5 years from peak to fail. A lack of Next Gen aircraft is interesting at best.
My bet is grab used 320s if push comes to shove. Especially if Airbus comes out with a mod to current 320s. I mean Boeing was talking extending the nose wheel to get more efficient engines but I think the 320 can be tinkered with.
Actually, if we're grabbing "older" or no longer in production planes like a 90 then my bet is why not wait a few years and grab used 320s and 737s. By that time B&A might have announced their intent to look at a definite maybe possibly starting one day a 737/A320 replacement.
Also say fuel goes to $180bb and remains there but we can't raise prices. I'd like to think you'd see the complete elimination of 50-seaters and possibly keeping only some of the larger RJs and having larger aircraft flying routes with less frequency. Maybe or maybe not, I haven't thought that out yet.