Originally Posted by
rickair7777
At face value, so it might seem so. But airlines management groups have a lot of turnover, and they don't have what I would I consider a long corporate memory. It would probably help if OJ were to somehow get divorced from mag...but I'm not sure that's possible, it seems mesa is a just a large extension of his ego.
In general I'd say there's a chance that at renewal time mag will get to compete. It is possible that the majors will take a "best value" approach instead of a "lowest cost" approach in the future. Possible, but not guaranteed by any means.
Doug Parker might be another story...he's been talking the big talk to his employees for years now and apparently personally despises OJ. Unless he simply can't live without 39 900's I suspect that he will not renew.
If a UA/US merger were to somehow happen, mag would be out of the US side for sure if for no other reason than timing. There would be a near-term need to cut feed at the merged company, and UA-ALPA has 90 seat scope. It would make sense to just let that contract die.
Any members of a future management team that either have forgotton about MAG or never heard of them would have had had to have been living under a rock for the last 15 years...............possible, but not likely.
As for the risk of the 50-seat or less issue, that is indeed also a risk, especially if that major has no ties of possesion of that regional carrier. In the case of Eagle, AMR has found extensive value in owning Eagle and could have indeed sold it as was previously tried, but the strings that they attached (for a reason) insured the entities that owned it wouldn't really own it and the profit potential was far too insufficient for the hassle and thus every single suitor balked.
If AA is to survive in anything close to current form, it will NEED a strong and competitive feeder system and that means more 70 seat (and possibly above) aircraft. Eagle's 47 CRJ's will be insufficient for the future and one way or another will be increased. On the other hand, the larger RJ aircraft that MAG has can easily be obtained by other carriers that ARE offered MAG's current contracts when they expire as there are plenty of pilots and current 70-seaters available and if MAG is left without a dance partner (highly likely), then they'll likely be in no need of the larger RJ's they have now.
Most believe there is too much feeder capacity now as it is and a contraction and streamlining by majors in the future will likely result in LESS need for RJ's and not more. Add to that the likelyhood of mergers and that means even fewer and more streamlined regional feeder ops. If UAL and CAL merge, that would leave U in a bad spot as they are foundering and perhaps AA will work out another asset acquisition TWA style and that would be almost certain to leave the majority of U's current feeders gradually dissolved, otherwise U is destined to wither on the vine. Of all the regionals out there MAG is the least attractive of the bunch especially to the survivng legacies all of which they've alienated with the exceptions of AA and CAL and they've not been under any rocks for the last 15 years, that's for sure. DAL can't wait to dump them, UAL soon won't need them, AA has a looong and sharp memory (as well as plenty of other options) and U is a dying quail.
Not good overall and from an odds standpoint and IMO, a perilous long term future for MAG and again, even if they come out of the current BK solvent in theory. Given a choice between being a carrier with CURRENTLY a large number of 50-seaters and a smaller one with few 50-seaters but having bitten every single hand that fed them, I'd go with the former every time.
One can be fixed.................the other can't as it's too late.