Originally Posted by
gipple
Of course there is and always will be a pilot shortage. Just ask Kit Darby. He has made a nice career by crying wolf.
Even he has stopped crying wolf:
Aviation Information Resources, Inc. Ceases Operations
The only place there might be a shortage is the regionals (sub-standard QOL for sub-standard pay).
Everyone is always telling me about how the retirement perfect storm is shaping up, and I simply ignore it all. When the hiring at the majors does start again, it will still be ultra-competitive. Take a look at the regional growth and the resulting pool of experience that the majors will have to pick from.
Then, consider that the majors have only been outsourcing more, not less, work to the regionals. What's to stop them when all of their pilots retire, if so many are willing to go to work for their regional feeders?
Finally, take a look at our beloved government that, in one way or another, is always willing to step in and "rescue" the industry with one regulation or another to keep the shortage at bay (age 65, MPL, etc.).
There will never be a pilot shortage for the majors, nor any other truly "career-level" jobs.