Originally Posted by
Reroute
My thoughts are that the number of aircraft in DCI will naturally drop to the 450-500 range. The economics of the CRJ 200 is particularly poor. The company has been parking and will continue to park CRJ-200s, so why agree to allow additional 76 seat RJs in return for the company parking jets they were going to park regardless?
If Delta needs more 76 seat jets they can fly as many as they want with Delta pilots.
Reroute, as you are very aware of they need a carrot to amend some of these DCI FFD (cost Plus) contracts in the near term.
FWIW, I agree with everything you are stating. I see DCI shrinking by at least 1/3 if not more in the next three to five years. It was a hypothetical question. One that I beleive we will be asked. Just wanted the gallery's thoughts on something of this nature. No more no less.
I honestly get the impression that the company knows the 100 seat jets is a non starter. As I stated above they need something to offer to amend some of these longer term contracts. Yes, there ares some resets in these deal that start as early as Oct of this year, but they want to change the structure of these agreements from Cost + to risk sharing. It will keep more of the money from the ticket sales in house. It has long been one of my biggest beefs with the structure of these deals.
The FFD airlines are smart, and they will want protections. Granted in the next 10 years the number of DCI jets under these types of contracts goes to roughly 16 airframes and that would be at ASA.
I like that the route structure we are building lends itself to larger airframes and less frequency. It is a rational structure that allows for more bodies to fly with the same capacity constraints.
The reason I brought this up is simple. I do not see growth (substantial) in the mainline market over the next 24-36 months. This is a critical time for DAL to get their entire house in order. We have that time because of the consolidation that will be occurring. Part of the is these deals with the DCI third party operators. We all know the DCI 50 seat footprint is shrinking, but by what degree is unknown. It lead me to the though that if we could get a hard capped number going forward on all flying, would we bite and what would the rank and file think. That lead me to the post. Pick a cap, Pick a number of 76 seat jets. That is why I left it blank.
In my mind I just see the question being asked and D-ALPA needing to answer. No, works until the hang a GTF on a 50 seat jet. I would like to see hard limits on the gander or each certified seat class.