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Old 05-01-2010 | 07:15 PM
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Derek Smalls
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Originally Posted by eaglefly
What if Parker divested the east operation (to include all former U assets and employees) to a seperate company, then merge the west into AA and let the former U (east) go into chapter 7 liquidation and then take part in the purchase of desirable assets from the wreckage of the former U ?
At least two problems with this line of thinking that I can think of and probably more;

1. What part of the former AW is it exactly that would benefit AA? The Phoenix Hub? Doubtful, too much low cost competition from WN that would certainly eat AA's lunch. Access to Asia or at least a location with natural flow to Asia? Negative. A 100+ Airbii when AA is rebuilding around the Boeing? Not likely.

So, What?

2. AA competitor's, WN specifically but likely DL and AI as well would make AA pay dearly to pick up former US assets at "distress sale" prices in CH 7, presuming the whole maneuver of splitting the Company and then selling one-half while bankrupting the other would even be legally plausible, not too mention politically where the largest problem likely lies. No, even if a fairy tale dream came true and you could "do" this, then the cost of that Philly Hub and the DCA slots, etc. just got too potentially expensive to make this worth the risk to AA or anybody else. IMHO of course.

But, you are certainly correct that Mr. Doug Parker has to be doing a lot of thinking about what his next move is. The status quo is unsustainable despite management's proclamation that "all is well." Not for long it won't be.

I think AA is much better sitting back for now and seeing how things go...the UA/CO thing, although likely, is far from being done with the same lack of issues as DL/NW. There will be opportunities in the future and those with the most cash and stronger balance sheets are likely to benefit.

Good luck to my colleagues at U, sincerely, in the big scheme of things the sooner you get your act together and get unified the more likely you'll be around in 5 years. Again, IMHO.

-Smalls
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