I think you overestimate how many new pilots are left. ERAU and other aviation universities have record low enrollments right now. The economy takes some blame in this but also keep in mind that anyone entering this profession now has seen it decline for the last 10 years and the Colgan crash opened everyone's eyes on what has become of this profession.

I think the regional model for keeping costs down is coming to a close. Between the major unions not budging on scope, lifers at the regionals driving costs up, and the lack of people willing to work for rock bottom wages will make it uneconomical.

Keep in mind that last time we had even a minor uptick in hiring (2007) places like Colgan, Mesa, and the rest were barely able to fill classes even while getting kids straight out of school with fresh CMELs. That last hiring wave was during a contraction in the number of airplanes flying and retirements hadn't even heated up. Had we not have changed the retirements to 65 we would probably have never seen the hardships we're facing now as pilots.