Originally Posted by
FlyJSH
I seem to remember 747s once required a flight engineer.
FE's operated systems. Systems are now highly automated.
Originally Posted by
FlyJSH
There are only two reasons we still have two pilots: regulations and liability.
You forgot the REAL reason: Redundancy. Other than the wing spars, there are no single-point-safe items on an airliner, everything is redundant.
Originally Posted by
FlyJSH
Look at the 1900, Shorts, Banderantes, and Metros. All of them can be flown by one pilot or two depending on the type of operation. Same plane, but the regulations determine the crew.
What happens if the pilot is incapacitated? It happens several times a year (or more) in general aviation. Airlines conduct WAY more flight segments than GA.
It might make the local news if some old guy passes out and crashes his 172 in a cornfield. Now what if that happened to a 777 on approach into EWR...
In order for this to work, the airplane has to be fully, 100% capable of flying itself and dealing with any conceivable emergency. Anything less would entail catastrophic risk which the regulators, insurers, and public would not go for.
Originally Posted by
FlyJSH
It took only 30ish years to go from Doolittle's first instrument flight to commercial use of autoland. It once took eight engines to push a B-52, but only two for a 777. Navigators took star shots into the 70s and could calculate positions to plus or minus a mile or so, now man made "stars" drive our GPS receivers.
All good stuff...but none of it can think like a human being. How is a computer going to decide when to turn the seatbelt sign on and off? How about navigate around a bunch of TC or TB? How about irregular ops?
In 1970 they thought that by 2010 we would all be flying around in sub-orbital spaceliners (LAX-NRT in 45 minutes) and vacationing on the moon...that didn't really work out now did it?
Originally Posted by
FlyJSH
For the cost, figure an "average" Boeing or Airbus FO costs a company $150,000-200,000 yearly (salary, training, benefits, etc.). Each plane requires five FOs. So a company spends close to a million a year on FOs per plane. Consider an airframe has a 30 year lifespan. That means $25 million or so over the life of the plane. Considering a new 737 costs around $80 million, adding a few more million to the final price, for single pilot certification would be a steal.
True, and that's a lot of money. But not enough to pay for re-engineering the entire domestic (or global) ATC system, including ground handling at airports. Also it's not just a matter of adding equipment to current airliners. You would really need a "clean-slate" design to incorporate all of the additional redundancy and new technology. Airlines are not going to throw away all the airplanes they have now and rush out to buy new ones.
When the day comes where the ATC system is already in place, the regulations are approved, automated airliners are available in the boeing showroom, and market analysis determines the public will go for it...THEN airlines will consider doing it.
Originally Posted by
FlyJSH
But, cost of the liability for single pilot ops could be too high, just as the liability of a single engine 737 could be too high. Not to mention, getting the public and the FAA to accept single pilot ops will be difficult.
It's not just liability...that calculation derives from actual risk determinations.
Also what are the economic advantages for airlines? Once this technology deploys, all airlines will back to where they started...competing with each other for razor-thin margins, pilots or no pilots.
The airlines will do it if it's available because they have to compete...but the airline industry is NOT going to rush out in unison and spend trillions of dollars to get this thing done. It will not result in windfall profits...profits will be the same thin margins as always, but the pax will get a cheaper ticket. The airlines are not going to invest just to do that.
How will it happen? Regulations and ATC systems will gradually change to allow UAVs to operate in civil airspace, for a variety of applications. Once that is in place and proven reliable, then somebody might start looking at unmanned (or less manned) airliners. Somebody has to build it before they come...