I've just moved back to Oz after flying in the US for over 10 years and from what I've seen there isn't a pilot shortage. We have guys lining up down the street to interview and in fact, because the supply outweighs the demand, we've knocked back some very experienced individuals.

The thing you have to remember about Oz is that it can only support a finite amount of commercial operators. It may be the same size as the US but there are only 22 million people here, so it will only ever need 2 major domestic carriers and a couple more LCC's.

Also, there are so many Australians flying overseas that you'd probably have to drain that supply first, before any real pilot shortage became evident.