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Old 06-26-2010 | 07:04 AM
  #350  
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alvrb211
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Originally Posted by Ad Lib
There is still A LOT of uncertainty about this economy. Our hiring is being driven by growth. That growth really requires a sustained gain in employment.

I'd watch indicators like unemployment statistics, GDP and our stock price. Any of those leading indicators typically filters through to block plans and staffing decisions in that order. Delta reacts very quickly to market conditions and genuinely tries to avoid hiring pilots that they might have to furlough.

Overall, airline hiring tracks GDP very reliably with the average being about 4% growth yearly in between market fluctuations. Mainline hiring has fallen below the line because we've outsourced so much of it. Going forward it is hoped we will see normal patterns return.

Good points!

Also, watch global air freight. It has been a very reliable indicator going into, and coming out of recessions. Right now, there are a lot of positive signs there. Airlines typically use Causal methods in forecasting which are only good for a couple of years at best. Again, there are positive indicators going forward so let's hope for continued improvement.



Al
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