The few actual numbers available imply an actual domestic pilot "shortage" is not likely to come to fruition. For example: American has one of the largest pilot groups of the US legacies and only a few more than about 500 of their pilots are nearing 65. They currently have almost 2000 on furlough.

The total number of furloughed pilots at US legacies (according to this site) is 3787. There are 7 legacy carriers..If American, is a good measure..this is all guesstimation of course: then say 500 retirements per legacy and the total number of retirements is nearly 1200 fewer pilots than the total furloughed. The actual nearing retirement number would have to be significantly higher than my estimate to even result in a full legacy furlough recall.

So in my opinion, the numbers don't support the pilot shortage theory, not even remotely. I think there will be an increase in hiring, but I'd be surprised to even see another regional job boom like the one in 07' ever again.

Comparatively the numbers are probably less favorable for a pilot shortage at the regionals as the regional pilot group as a whole is typically much younger than the legacies.