I've been working with an AD recruiter for a few weeks now and she says the chances are a little better than that. Of the non-prior applicants there was a selection rate of just over 30% last year.

In my case she said there was a selection rate of over 70%. I am prior a prior service crew chief with flight ratings. I think the biggest factor in who gets picked up is how personable you are and how persistent.

Hope this helps a little. Your chances of getting picked up are a little better with AD I would think.