Rule #1: the Rules change, all the time and with little notice or logic.

Examples: Mid 1990s (post Desert Storm) was the era of the "banked pilots" who graduated UPT and then went on to become maintenance officers for 3 or so years prior to getting a cockpit. There were about 1,000 qualified and flight screened candidates for every 200 or 300 pilot slots.

Late 1990s: at USAFA, if you were medically qualified to fly and didn't want to, you had to explain your rationale to the 1 star.

Early 2000s: the dawn of the UAV / RPA / whatever you want to call it.

2005ish: USAF redefined its manning and was overmanned severely. Showed a lot of LTs the door and offered huge bonuses for current and qualified pilots to separate.

Today: manning stable for now, but the USAF just cut 5,000 non-flying positions and tomorrow's budget will be TIGHT. Flying hours and training has been steadily cut and more training pushed to the sim. RPAs are now a separate "flying" career track. The fact is that there are more F-15 and F-16 pilots than there will be F-22 and F-35 pilots. Where will those "extra" pilots go? Early retirement? Separation bonus? Forced to staff or RPA?

Tomorrow: who knows!!! The budget will continue to shrink. Manning will continue to shrink. Today's politicians are trying to figure out how to exit Iraq and Afghanistan. Expect a substantial force reduction, kinda like post-Vietnam or post-Desert Storm. Maybe next year, maybe in 5, but it will happen in your career.

Bottom line: don't go to active duty thinking you're guaranteed to fly, or build hours, or get a retirement. Do what you like to do and if it works out, consider yourself lucky.