True, but right now with the glut of unemployed pilots there would have to be a serious increase in hiring for the the pool to truly get that depleted. Also this was fueled by the explosive growth of regional carriers, I don't think there is going to be another increase in that sector of that magnitude again. (At least we better hope not!!) Yes there will be many retirements out in the future but there are fewer mainline jobs for regional pilots to move on to. Unfortunately the the pyramid has been flipped and everyone will not move on to a major carrier.