Originally Posted by Roberto

B2. I do not disagree with your points, though I have made the following comments in blue

1. UPS itself said the OT/JA ban was worth 200 positions.
I saw this statement by Jim M, and I always pay close attention to what he says. However, UPS would never reduce the manning so that they were dependent on OT/JA to make service. Just the ability to decline OT/JA is enough to save the extra 200 positions. A ban does not need to be actually implemented.
As I said below, we're not going to prevent the company from ever making service, but we'll prevent them from making service some of the time. The ability to decline would prevent them? You don't think they'd test the waters by throwing an extra 50 over the original 300 into the street? I think your faith in the company's rationality is questionable considering their past behavior. Everyone says it's UPS that's the bad guy here and they are, but the next 200 in line to be furloughed after the original 300 are YOUR responsibility according to UPS, Jim Magner and the EB...hold the line please.
2. MEF flying this past quarter was double from last year in the same time frame even with less sorties flown...Easy to look up now with the MEF tracker.
Did the senior UPS leadership (those who make the furlough decisions) not anticipate this, and do they consider it a bad thing?
If they didn't I'd be surprised...I think they're actually very predictable in pushing manning to the point of crisis and then reacting in panic just as they have in the past. However, my point here was simply to answer your question about OT/JA having any effect...It DOES, and demonstrably so.
3. Managers were pulled out of the GOC to be available to fly MEF...managers have lost planned vacations and have broken into crewmember hotel rooms in desperation to find bodies to fly.
I believe this kind of chatter on the forums is highly over-stated. I wish I had the data on individual FQS schedules to back up my intuition. As a former military pilot, one who had numerous squadron duties in operations, maintenance, and administration over the years, I recall how getting on the flight schedule was a good thing and got us out of the office.
Your beliefs are fine, but I got this information directly from the EB at a GMM...it's repeated on the forums, but that doesn't make it less valid. You want to dispute these facts, you'll need to show up at a GMM in front of everyone and explain what you believe is really going on. Shall we all rely on your intuition?
4. SWA and Fedex folks look with envy at the solidarity we are displaying as a group for our furloughees. When they come back to the line, they'll be an adamant and loyal force for our union since most of us held the line.
Solidarity is a good thing, as long as we are working smart, not emotionally.
Never underestimate the power of a unified group of people...the emotional aspect is just as important as the logical part. It drives people to the peak of their abilities and make sacrifices for the less fortunate in our union. The large part of our pilot group does this and it's impressive.

I bet others can come up with more reasons why it's effective. The goal is not to shut down the company, but to get the furloughees back sooner rather than later. Just wait until peak, when every night is crisis management...then you'll see just how effective this OT/JA ban will be. It won't shut'em down, but the pain will be palpable.
This will be my 20th peak, and perhaps I am not representative of the norm, but I haven't found peak schedules to be any worse than usual. Often they have been a breeze. I think that is not the case for the people who actually have to do the planning and those who get their hands on the packages.
There has never been a peak with people furloughed and an OT/JA ban going on...Your 20 years here and the 20 past peaks will be radically different in many ways from Peak 2010. Again, the answer to your original question is answered...The OT/JA is having an effect and that effect will grow with time because of more furloughs, rising Asia cargo and retirements over the next few years.
B2P.