I think Gunters prediction of Jan '11 is a good one --- or perhaps early spring.

Looking at the training letter, we now know there are 146 SOs leaving over the next 13 months.

(Note: This number is lower than the actual bid award because LCAs, FLEXs, Flight Test guys, etc., bid higher seats for the passover pay, but are not headed to training over the next year)

Here are the actual # of 727 SOs leaving each month for uprgrade training:

Monthly/Overall Total

2010

Aug - 7 / 7
Sep - 18 / 25
Oct - 12 / 37
Nov - 0 / 37
Dec - 3 / 40

2011
Jan - 15 / 55
Feb - 15 / 70
Mar - 15 / 85
Apr - 24 / 109
May - 19 / 128
Jun - 6 /134
Jul - 4 / 138
Aug - 4 / 142
Sep - 4 /146

Additionally, it appears the # of Over Age 65 guys coming to the back for their final swan song currently remains a trickle.

Given we are about 50 guys overmanned in the SO seat right now --- Jan or Feb 2011 should be the date.

...however, let's remember the 727 fleet is scheduled to shrink quite a bit in 2011, so it wouldn't surprise me if the date slipped a few months into the early spring just before 58 SOs are scheduled to leave the seat in just 3 months (Mar/Apr/May).

So hang in there poolies, the rain has stopped and the sun is peeking through the clouds --- keep your heads up and your cell phones on!!