Originally Posted by
acl65pilot
TYG, I know. If the economy goes the right direction, the hiring will be awesome. I love the numbers ppl are throwing around

I just hope it happens.
I'm gonna be the unpopular contrarian...I hope it doesn't.
I've been through two boom and bust cycles, plus one smaller rapid expansion that hung on the edge of furlough for the bottom end of our list when the economy took a vicious swing. It's my view that the industry needs to see capacity discipline to maintain pricing power and repair balance sheets. If we grow like we've done in previous cycles it will feel good for a short time (4-6 years like previous waves). The backside of that will suck.
The US industry physically can't add too much capacity in 2011, as most airlines don't have easy, affordable access to aircraft they can add to their schedule in that short time horizon. It's 2012 through 2015 I'm worried about. In the past airline pricing been at the mercy of our dumbest competitor (which was sometimes
US like SimpliFares
). With the exception of LUV, no passenger airline has the balance sheet to weather another sustained downturn without serious furniture burning. An ill-advised industry capacity expansion will increase debt loads and can decrease pricing power if not done correctly. That puts us all at risk.
jmo, and Carl and Nosmo can tell me I'm wrong.