Originally Posted by
TonyWilliams
100-125 seats in 10-20 years.
150 seats in 20-30 years.
Single pilot ops in 30-40 years.
Highly doubt any of that will happen, but even if it does, that will be the end of career opportunities for the regionals most of all. The legacies will still have their widebodies and large narrowbodies. But the regionals, if what you predict [wish] actually happens, will merely be flying airplanes twice as large for half as much as they themselves made (adjusted for inflation with all benefits and work rules thrown in) from the peak contracts of the ACA/Comair/etc era from under 10 years ago.
The regionals simply will no longer be getting these free fuel guaranteed profit margin glory days that they used to. We are seeing the last of those being inked with visibile expirations as we speak. Done. Once Republic is weened off their massive foundation of guaranteed money they will go the way of Indy Air, guaranteed.
At the pilot level there will be no more SJS because even the horniest, frosted hair, inverted epaulette wearing, backpack toting, iPod listening, mirrored Oakley wearing, Doc Martin stomping, shirtless volleyball playing, "I fly for [MainLine] proclaiming fanboy will have no choice but to realize, before the first flight lesson, that it will never pay squat, there will be no light at the end of the tunnel, and there will never, ever, ever, under any realistic circumstance, ever be "Paris, First Class, International" waiting for him/her at the end of the long, dark tunnel. Think pilot recruitment numbers are low now? Wait until there is essentially no mainline to go to, or even if there is, only after 15-20+ years at a regional first. Regional pay won't come up at all (all "raises" will still put them further and further behind the year 2000ish contracts) because at the core, RFP contracting, however it is structured, guarantees the decimation of those who do it.
In the past young buck pilots did it for the brass ring at the end, and of course some ended up staying as lifers for various reasons (many of which are some of the finest pilots in the country despite the "couldn't get hired" stereotypes). Even the so called "super regionals" are a joke because all it takes is one existing, or yet to be created, regional to make a lower bid, to bring down the house of cards by shaking it's foundation.
As for single pilot airliners, again I doubt that. We will see robot planes first IMHO, and even that will take a VERY long time. Not only from a cost effective standpoint, but from a liability standpoint. Without a pilot saying at 9900 feet on the descent "nice sunset" and then going off the end of the runway 20 minutes later, a robot plane will be 100% to blame and will bring a storm of emotional lawsuits even the most egregious pilot error NTSB ruling ever could. And sorry, but paying for an FO or not is simply not going to be a make or break function regardless of the price of technology.
In any case, it seems like you are not only predicting, but cheering for ever increasing regional/outsourced flying. Why? Fly a plane twice as big for 10. maybe 20 bucks more? Only to lose it in concessions/inflation before the end of the same contract that brought it to you? That's hardly career progression or even protection.
Mainline scope is your best friend and greatest hope. You can realize it now or later of course. The same goes for mainline pilots.