Well..first off everything is negotiated with or without arbitration.
I have no idea how this is going to pan out, but longevity is certainly a valid argument. Is that going to be offset by career expectations? IE 4 years longevity but furloughed with no chance of recall in sight or 2 years longevity currently employed with attrition and growth within the airline.
Who freaking knows. I am not going to lose sleep over it. In one way or another, it will be relative seniority with some battle for the furloughs. (guess of course)