Originally Posted by
johnso29
I heard that at the roadshows they said by the end of 2010 there would be 900 guys over Age 60, and by the end of 2011 there would be 1300. A moving target for the staffing to figure out. Good Luck to them.
As we move into year 3 of age 65, we hit the part of the curve that trends upwards as far as medical problems, and it only increases from there.
If you look at the number of guys who retire in any given year, assuming age 60, you had about %150 of the normal retirements actually retire. Some were, to be sure, early retirement for guys who married rich, hit the lotto, became rock stars, whatever, but by and large, that number was driven by people who went out on disability or medicaled out.
The number of people who are financially able to retire early has probably gone down, but as we press on, the overall number will probably increase due to medical issues.
Some fNW guys also have very large sick banks due to the "top off" carry over. That is going to be the great unknown, especially as we get closer to year 4.
There was a lot of actuarial data for age 60. Not so for 65. The people who work the staffing are flying blind at this point.
Nu