Originally Posted by
Romulus
Translation: Be afraid, be very afraid. My job depends on you being afraid. Are you afraid yet? Booo!
Sorry, not buying it. It's a matter of economics. If pilots in this country were serious about this they'd merge with the regional pilots and kill the whipsawing once and for all. They won't do it. Why is that? Time to put up or shut up because the fear tactics aren't working except those fresh out of flight training.
No one said to be afraid, except possibly the "regionals are taking over everything in the narrowbody world" crowd, who, if anything, are "warning" with fear about regionals slaughtering the mainline pilot groups with their SJS.
And your fresh from the flight school comment was funny, in an Alanis Morsissette kind of way, because the young bucks are and always have been getting into this business at that level to one day live the "Paris, First Class, International" dream (or the uber stable, good paying SWA domestic dream, or the big money cargo FX/UPS dream, etc).
Bigger RJ's not only takes that away or drastically increases the timeline to get there (if ever) it adds nothing to pay or QOL at the regional level. Even if mainlines agreed to allow that level of outsourcing at the regionals, any regional hoping to get it would have to "deal management an ace" to get the RFP to begin with. IOW do it for little to no extra money. Maybe a few bucks an hour more. Maybe not even that. Get the airframes now and worry about the pay later, but later never comes because by the time it's bigger jet contract 2.0 time, other regionals in the portfolio have them or are getting them and you MUST be one of the, if not the absolute, lowest bidders to get/keep the work.
No one is saying there will soon be no more regionals. Far from it. There will always be a market for SOME 50 ad 70-76 seat jets and props, always. Maybe a few mainlines, like FL, will push the limits (86 seats in order to get holding company scope...something all the rest already have and don't need to compromise for) but look for the current limits to stay where they are at some places and slowly draw back at others. There will still be many, many thousands upon thousands of regional pilot jobs in any case. Mainline retirements will drain the pool of qualified regional pilots (among the other obvious sources) at an incredible pace...think akin to the mid-late 90's boom, and there will still be advancement. The junior will be able to move up, the lifers will be able to ride it out til retirement with their existing pay and QOL largely in tact and the legacy mainlines will still be doing not only international but the lions share of domestic as well, just like they do today.
Bigger RJ's at the regionals is not only not going to happen, but it shouldn't happen either because it guts the mainline and adds nothing whatsoever to the regionals in the long run except maybe a few bucks an hour which will be given up in the next contract once everyone else gets the very same larger, shinier toy on the bock.
As for the economics, look for mainlines to fly that range of seats for whatever they economically need to be flown for. But keep in mind, SWA's 737, NDAL's DC-9's, AT's 717's and JBU's E190's are flying around with mainline pay scales and benefit packages as it is, and doing so quite profitably as you can see. The only thing "revolutionary" in the C-Series is that, if it's everything Bombardier claims it to be, will be it's fuel efficiency and cabin comfort. Being more fuel efficient is hardly something that will force the next gen of what's already flying at mainline to be outsourced for "economic" reasons.