Originally Posted by
DD214
I am not sure if this is the right forum to ask this question but since anyone at a regional will more than likely hope to go up to mainline I was wondering if anyone knew about what percentage of the senior guys at the Majors are projected to retire in the next 18-24 months
This doesn't make a lot of sense. When the age 65 law kicked in DEC 2007, it basically ensured that NO active airline pilot would be forced into retirement due to age for five years (DEC 2012).
There will obviously be some guys who medical out, as well as voluntary retirements but those are few and far between and hard to predict.
Actually there are a tiny handful of pilot who will have to retire before DEC 2012...those are guys who were older than 60 but were still on an airline seniority list in 2007 because they were FE's or SIM instructors. Some of those folks were able to return to the line even though they had already been forced to retire at age 60. I don't know how many there are, but it's got to be a very small number.
Originally Posted by
DD214
I know that there are alot of guys on the streets but I keep hearing about this age 65 deal that will be a non issue in 2 years or so.
It will be a non-issue in DEC 2012. When the law was passed, it basically froze and extended all age-mandated retirements for five years. For the first time in the recent history of the industry there was no (or very little) steady flow of retirees out the top. In DEC 2012, retirements will resume on schedule as the guys who should have retired in late 2007 turn 65.
After that, the rate of turnover will depend on the age demographics at the majors (regionals have very few pilots anywhere near that old). The demographic details have been discussed here...
http://www.airlinepilotforums.com/ma...tatistics.html