As someone who has been in this business for 32 years, let me say that in that time I have never, repeat NEVER, seen a pilot shortage. This, despite numerous prognosticators and expert reports, most of which were self serving. For example, they tend to come from the training industry, or the aircraft manufacturers overly optimistic estimates of aircraft needed.

Flying continues to conjure up romantic career images, even though the reality is far removed from glamorous. The number of inquiries and threads on this site are indicative that the population of pilot's in the pipeline is alive and well, and competition for reasonable employment remains intensely fearce.

Yes, there will be retirements..but they don't crest for a number of years yet. Moreover, the regional airline industry, which was a shadow of it's present size even 20 years ago, now carries nearly 50% of all US domestic traffic! This explosive growth is a double edged sword for those of you in the pipeline.

On the plus side, it's created unprecidented opportunities for low time pilots. American Eagle will let you into the game with only 1000 hours total time....30 years ago you couldn't touch a Cessna 310 (as a commerical pilot for charters, for example) without 3000 TT. On the downside, if you have your eyes set on flying the heavy iron....the majors are under unprecedented cost pressures and so have been, and will continue to, turn over flying in the 70 to 110 seat category to the regionals. To remain profitable, they rely on huge seat numbers to lower their CASM. The unions are already losing this battle. Note that Comair is going to slash their fleet in half...parking many of the CRJ 50 seaters while retaining 70 to 90 seat airplanes. Republic is adding E-190s and flying 100 seats around at 60% of the labor rates of Midwest Airlines. In other words, the mainline carriers will stick to fewer but larger airplanes, and the regionals will fly mid-size airplanes, replacing smaller RJs as traffic rebounds or grows.

A word about reality...it BITES! If you're trying to get into this business, be prepared for strikes, furloughs, bankruptcies, medical issues, mergers and seniority list setbacks THROUGH OUT your career! I have been through each and every one of these issues!!!! There is no such thing as a job for life "or once you get here you got it made". Those cherry days are over, and died with the guys whose career spanned the DC-3, 6, Connie, 707, and 74. They retired after living the dream.

As for the shortage...well, let's look at current requirements shown on Rishworth or Parc. Not unusual to see 1) The applicable type rating. 2) 500 hours PIC in type 3) Last PC within 6 months 4) 3 T/Os and Landings within the last 90 days 5) One to two years international (overwater) experience 6) NO accidents, incidents, or violations 7) not more than 90 days of non flying within the last 12 months or not less than XXX hours the last 12 months. And by the way, here is the training bond to sign...for $15 to 30K if you leave before your contract is up.

Now.....the only reason they can do that is because there are enough guys out there who meet those requirements, and in 32 years of professional flying I have NEVER seen these sorts of comprehensive requirements before. Yes, there have been requirements, but not as exhaustive and incontrovertable as these.

None of this is meant to discourage any of you...only to try to dispence with the notorious "pilot shortage myth."