Originally Posted by
HermannGraf
I dont think so;
maybe I can agree that chip is happy when a senior Captain leaves because in his eyes he is getting expensive but the rest....naaaahh
you are not taking into considaration that Delta is taking 300 this year and 300 next year, JBLUE took 120 this year and is planning on taking 200 2011, Virgin America is hiring, Atlas Air and other Cargo operators are hiring and have taken Skywest pilots and among the Regionals Eagle, Pinnacle and others have already started hiring.
We have lost over 200 pilots in the seniority list at Skywest in the last 3 years without hiring anyone and the amount that are leaving is increasing for every month.
The 1500 hour rule passed and today in the news they are talking at even harder demands to be able to get hired by a Regional.
Also, when interviews are taken at skywest not all can handle it, I've seen 45% getting employed and heard of numbers as low as 2 in 9 at the interview being offered employment so to think that all out there are qualified to be offered employment is wrong.
Times will get very interesting and it is the right time right now to fight for better pay and get back the respect that the pilot profession deserves and lost in the last 10 years..........
Delta did not take 300 this year, they took 175 with 130 returning from long term leave. JB might be looking at 120, I know AirTran needs 150 by March as well as all the furloughed pilots who are being recalled. I also understand that VA plans to double their fleet by the end of next year. All this will do is skim the top of the regionals. After all you're talking about a drop in the bucket when you look at the numbers; over 17K pilots in the regionals, well over 2000 furloughed pilots and MIL (yes there aren't that many of them but they still count). It will take the mass hiring of instructors into the regionals for Mgmnt to start taking actions against attrition, until then SKW will be afforded the luxury of being picky. Once the instructor pool starts to dry up things will get interesting.
BTW, what's the average longevity that is currently holding upgrade? It will be late 2011 if not early 2012 before anyone under 5 years with the company even sees the left seat of the RJ. After next year all bets are off.
The most Jr person in the last upgrade class had a 8/04 DOH. Between him and the 5 year mark there are over 550 pilots. A portion of which are already CA's and many have restricting bids that will cause them to be passed over (RJ CA SBA). But you can add back into that list well over 230 EMB CA's (125+ that will take just about anything RJ) who are looking for transition. Realistically in order for a pilot with a DOH in early 06 to be awarded RJ upgrade it will probably take until early 2012. But at no time during that time will SKW have a hard time filling classes. There are just too many who want to work and are able to work for the regionals. Once again, after early 2012 all bets are off.
If you want to add to it EMB upgrades go ahead but this time last year we had 57 E120's and now we are down to 48 with more scheduled to be pulled. My opinion is that we will get down to around 35 and the attrition of 120's will severely slow. To date there isn't a replacement for the Bro.......yet. Even with that being said most EMB CA's will be holding out for an RJ slot on the westcoast.