Originally Posted by
NWA320pilot
That's 7-23 years from now...... A lot can happen between now and then. Like was posted above viewing the seniority list from the bottom up is the best way to view where you stand.
7-23 years is a very long time in this industry. Look at the heavy hitters like Delta, United, NWA and American over the past ten years. American was nearly 13,500 after the TWA merger, now a former TWA 9 CA is a couple percent from the bottom at AA; there are almost 2,000 pilots with the option of recall. Most airlines were hiring when they furloughed.
Over the last ten years, 1999 to 2001 recession, 9-11, SARs, swine flu, Great Recession (2007 to ????), mergers, scope, codeshares, joint ventures, the 50-seat RJ was replaced by two-class 70 seat RJs, Spirit ended up with killer payrates, SWA doubled in size and rose to the top of the payscale, NWA and CAL disappear, Mexico erupts into civil chaos, cash and paid airplanes is king and extremist cells are broken up weekly. Oh and Apple may hit $300 with record sales.
Of all this, DAL is likely in the best position going forward, but even that position with the amount of long-term debt is difficult at best. My hats off to RA and his team, not sure how he did it but he will go down in history with Crandall and Kelleher as being builders and mastering the uncharted waters of deregulation (that's actually regulated).
My congrats to getting hired in these tough times. My only advice is enjoy the job! However, in order to do that you can't be sitting long call in one state with a family in another. If you can't move your family for various reasons, it will be a tough few years to say the least. Your first shot at block holder will likely be in NYC or in ATL on the 9 when it gets there.
The secret in everything you bid and plan on, risk vs gains. IMO, try to avoid seat locks as best you can; something worthwhile may come along in all the movement.