Originally Posted by
Superpilot92
point is that the projected list shows 3 for this year, there will be more than the projected retirement lists show. Also we're lower on the number of retirements right now because the majority that were going to go out early, took the prip so now things were likely to slow for a bit. With that said you know we wont avg 6 a month forever so the 2000 months comment is redonkulous
Point is we're 2 years away from age 65 affects to be over so between now and then we dont know for sure who will leave and when but it will be more than the worst case scenario of everyone going to 65.
Of course, the 2000 month comment was a joke. Having said that, I've followed retirement rates for a long, long time. Historically, at DAL, prior to the age 65 change, and the "run on the bank" exodus of guys fleeing to get their lump sum, we had about 1%/year leave the seniority list for anything other than mandatory retirement. With the current list and age 65, I'd suspect that will be a bit higher. I'm guessing we'll average about 180-200/year PLUS age 65 retirements for the foreseeable future. Based on that, here is my
estimate of total separations for the next few years:
2010: 40
2011: 190
2012: 220
2013: 310
2014: 360