I would agree with that. However...

Obviously by far (if not the only) reason total RJ numbers are down is the unsuccessful business model of the current massive fleet of 50 seaters. As for the caps on larger RJ's, we should take little comfort in outsourcing caps that run right up to the currently allowable red line. What that means is if they could, there would be more (that goes for total frames of existing 70-76 seaters as well as, of course, anything larger). What that means, obviously, is that management is just now bumping up against the limits they agreed to previously, yet limits that for the entire history of this discussion have been slowly and methodically raised, in good times for a token bribe (which is usually taken away during the next bad times anyway) and in bad times for a slightly lesser lashing.

Then we have some guys claiming these limits mitigate furloughs, when in fact all they can possibly or conceivably do is to maybe mitigate some or all of the furloughs that their very existance would have paved the way for in the first place. And that's best case scenario, with a flow down, like Compass. Let's outsource all narrowbodies to Mesa, but with a flow, so that if anyone is furloughed they can flow. I just can't follow the logic of defending that philosophy, yet many employ it. The other scope concessions were flat out give aways that would at best contribute to and at worst directly cause furloughs by allowing management to do more and more Delta flying without Delta pilots.

Again, as to the bumping up against the limits of RJ outsourcing, we need to be very, very concerned about this. As in top tier issue. The history of RJ outsourcing has been one of constantly (although at some times slowly, at other times quickly) raised limits on total airframes as well as total seat count. Whenever you bump up against the newest limit (in this case total "large RJ" airframe limits, even if the total RJ count is down purely by anti-50 seater market forces) that is when you know you need to watch your back. Management clearly would LOVE to outsource more 70 and 76 seaters, and they would rev the engine and pop the clutch on the opportunity for anything larger. The fact that any such limits are being reached means that management will be right around the corner, in good times or in bad, to increase those limits. Count on it.

If they "have to" they will gladly write in a flow back. Pilot training costs is nothing compared to the glory of outsourcing more and more flying. And they will even give up "guaranteed ratios to mainline growth" if they have to, particularly when almost all such limits are one way check valves. But either is like agreeing to have someone cut a 6 inch gash in an artery (hey, we talked em down from 8) as long as they agree to stitch 2 inches of it right back up.

Management seeks every opportunity to raise scope limits in good times and in bad. Sec 6 negotiations and BK negotiations are their main windows of opportunity and they know one of them will be opening wide in the very near future. Now is the time to watch our backs, not only from management but from those sworn to serve and protect us as well.