Originally Posted by
TonyWilliams
No they won't. The FO's will take whatever scraps are handed to them, and they will wait to have 1000 or 1500 multi-crew part 121 PIC.
A very few will leave before, but because they may go onto a charter / corporate jet job that gets them instant PIC time.
The only real variable is if the majors begin to hire without PIC time. Obviously, that has happened in the past, but there will be a many, many year backlog of regional PIC guys who will get the seats for years into the future.
Which will open up the FO's to the left seat. So, I don't see much change.
I know everybody is all giddy about this, but the reality is that we don't have the final FAA rule. The FAA is getting wined and dined as we speak by every lobbyist who thinks there should be a loophole for their particular entity.
I expect that 1500 / ATP will not ultimately prevail. Even if it does, you'll get a MPL developed for these schools that will effectively be the loophole.
The only thing missing is the demand for pilots. The rest is academic.
Wow, I believed that you Tony as a former Skywest FO would understand if any....
1. There is no CRJ FO at Skywest right now that do not already have 1500 hours + multi Crew time. Delta, JBLUE and others have taking away PIC demands. The most junior line FO has been with the company for 3 years or more.
2. Delta has taken more First Officers from Skywest than Captains this year. More than 10 FOs have left for Delta.
3. Many FOs at Skywest have former 121 experience before starting with Skywest and some even PIC time part 121. Not all that got hired 2006 -2008 are former CFIs that started with Skywest at 1000/100. Most had way more than that.
4. You have been away from Skywest for a while and you would be surprised how things have changed specially among CRJ FOs that have by now been on FO salary for a few years and seen their QOL go down the drain so to say that they will take any crap for just getting the 121 pic time is not longer right.
The 1500 hour demand is already accepted. The lobby group tried to get the 800 hr but failed. The 1500 hour rule to be hired by a 121 carrier will soon be implemented.
We are tremendously short staffed. We have lost 200+ pilots according to the seniority list compared with the numbers from 2007. Etc, etc
Everyone thinks that MESA (Regional of the year 2005) failed due to a few bad deals. Part of the truth is that the biggest blow that affected their performance and resulted in losing contracts was the drainage of pilots that they had in 2007. They never recovered from that. If things do not change at Skywest they will experience the same.