Why don't we simply avoid the "commuting is a choice" debate? We've had it before.

If you look at things from a dispassionate and pragmatic standpoint, you've got a NPRM that is not compatible with the current contract. It will be the catalyst to sit down and re-negotiate Section 23. You've also got language that make the company jointly responsible for examining individual commuting practices, and jointly responsible for ensuring the pilot is rested. And you've got language that would make commuting time not count as rest. And you've got acclimation issues on which duty time and flight time are based. If everyone on the crew is not acclimated the same... they can't fly the same flight time and duty day.

How on earth do they make this work?

Option A: they require the pilot to come in to the base for a pre-trip rest. Option B: they try to reduce commuting. Option A implies costs. I don't think our contract allows for free rest periods before a rotation, therefore it would have to be built into the rotation. I also don't think the contract allows the company to force anyone to live anywhere particular. So you're down to B.

The only effective way to avoid commuting is to let the flying originate near the pilot. I'm not anywhere as smart as, say, Carl (noone is), but it seems reasonable to conclude that there will be a huge incentive for the company to put satellite basing on the table, like never before. I would bet the next contract offers dozens (and dozens) of cities, so that almost anyone can drive to any such city in two hours. I don't think this ends up costing any negotiating capital, because this is all about the impact of the new rules, and the effective lobbying by the family of Colgan 3407 victims. Never mind the fact that crash had little to do with fatigue, and almost everything to do with stupid pilots and poor flying skills: FOX and CNN decided it was a fatigue issue... and so it was.

For the record, I'm not a commuter, and I prefer big bases. But this strikes me as the obvious way out of the new regs, assuming they don't end up being changed. If anyone else has a alternative (and rational) vision of the future, I'm open to it. This is just where my speculation leads.