Originally Posted by
donversteed
You realize that B6's market cap is 2.01 Billion and ALK's market cap is 1.80 Billion. ALK is the cheaper airline to acquire. Not saying that it is going to happen. If ALK is too expensive, I would think that it would be even more difficult to acquire Jetblue based on the market cap as of 23-10-10.
Sure but market cap is only one of many, many variables. Especially in an extremely volitile stock market. Want to pay a cheaper price? Wait a month or two and odds are it'll be half off, etc. But besides that one of many factors, remember it doesn't have to be a pure "buy out" and in fact it often isn't. There are airlines out there that would benefit from a B6 tie up because of their unique and otherwise unobtainable (slots, gates, etc) position in JFK and to a lesser but still significant presence in BOS and who knows maybe even their dominance of LGB.
But getting B6 means instant (and otherwise unobtainable) not only presence, but borderline domestic dominance, in arguably the single most crucial domestic market in the country or even the world. Definately one of the top few for both, no question.
For an airline like AA, getting B6 would allow them to shift some of their domestic to international and plug in the instant dominant domestic feed and finally be able to compete with Delta and UCAL across the river. AA's position in such a crucial domestic and international market is a distant third tier now and the only way to change that is to get B6.
Likewise, SWA IMHO also has a strong motivation to get B6. They got a nice NYC presence from the AT deal as well as the (reeks of blatant favoritism and flat out bias but whatever) no bid (hmmmm I thought that was wrong! LOL!) UCAL EWR slot deal. SWA will be one of, if not THE biggest domestic airlines in the world now, yet their new combined presence in NYC is still pretty weak by comparison. Unless they can get some massive, earth shattering favoritisim in the next round of DL/USAir slot swap dealings, they will be limited to a small market share in the number one market. I doubt they will be satisfied with that. Getting B6 is the only way for them to truly grab hold of NYC going forward.
And again, forget market cap, because JB and its board knows that while they have some awesome niches going on, they are no where near being a truly diverse domestic powerhouse, let alone significant international. Sure they can try a few 330's here and there and watch the legacies seat dump on them til they bleed out (this ain't the post 9-11 draw down where you can poach low hanging fruit while everyone retreats and you grow into it anymore) so it benefits B6 to greatly broaden their network definately domestically, but internationally as well.
B6 has a huge neon sales sign in their front yard full of plastic pink flamingos and balloons attracting the attention of the entire airline investment world. You can bet that AA, SWA, maybe even Branson with his shady laundered foreign money and of course many others are looking. Hard. It could be a buy out, but it could also be a stock swap or anything else.