Not sure how senior you are @ ExpressJet, but @ most any airline, Spirit included, first year pay is gonna' be rough. That's a given.

I re-ran the the #'s (messed them up the first time, whoops!). Assuming you get min RSV guarantee, the current APC upgrade times hold, and you take the first upgrade available, it would take a 10 year XJT CA ___ years to break even @ the following carriers:

• Spirit = 11 years
• UPS = 2 years*
• Delta = 7 years (5 years NB FO average, then go to WB FO average)
• Southwest = 4 years*
• United = 15 years (5 years NB FO, 5 years 75/76 FO, 5 years WB FO)

*The high min guarantee of UPS and Southwest, coupled with their higher hourly rates, really skews their #'s, as you'll likely break the lower min guarantees of Spirit, Delta, and United regularly, but that's the problem with forecasting the future - you'll never be able to model it perfectly.

You will make less the first couple years, then you'll make more, but it takes a couple more years to 'catch-up' the $ that you lost, especially that first year. For example, an 8 year Spirit FO brings in more than a 17 year XJT CA, but it takes 4 more years to break even b/c of the lower earning first 7 years @ Spirit. After the first year @ Spirit (which is hard living), our hypothetical 10 year XJT CA will take a median pay cut of 15%, with the highest pay cut in year 3, @ 31%, and the lowest, in year 7, of only 2%.

Honestly, if your costs are so high you can't afford the first 6 years @ Spirit, than you might not be able to afford to leave XJT at all. Essentially, if you can't live off $35,000 for the first year and can't take a modest pay cut for around 5 years, you really can't afford to leave the left seat of an RJ for the right seat of most any 121 carrier based on min guarantee. For me, I never plan for more than min guarantee, and then I always know I'll be alright.

My Spirit #'s came from their 2010 contract, while all my other #'s came from APC. My humble pie comes from 'Swedish'.

Planning career moves based only on anticipated income is foolish. There's much more to it, of course (QOL, retirement, company stability, culture, etc.). How much importance you put to mathematical financial modeling is up to you.