Originally Posted by
Sniper
In that case, here's your new #'s:
- Spirit = goes from 11 ->12 years (barely)
- UPS = stays @ 2 years
- Delta = goes from 7 -> 9 years (w/o accounting for pay bump)
- Southwest = stays @ 4 years
- United = oh man, goes to 17 years!
The 92 hour credits, bidding top 20, great QOL, the Skywest purchase, future prospects of flying 50 seat RJ's and fee for departure as a business model, the chances that all of the carriers used as examples keep their current contract for the next decade (or stay in business @ all) . . . the formula can't account for those.
Good luck to all the senior RJ CA's who have to make the same decision.
Good job Sniper. However APC does not show the yearly stepping that Spirit has for the next 5 years. In reality who gets hired today will face the following FO pay rates (actually slightly better than that but that is too much detail):
1st. $38.50
2nd. $66.22
3rd. $73.12
4th. $82.22
5th. $89.96
6th. $95.44
7th. $99.93
8th. $103.19
9th. $106.21
10th. $109.27
So to crunch that:
1st year 38.5*72*9months $24,948 +3 months trng pay $4,500 = $29,448. Assumes reserve for the full year which is very unlikely. vs $90*75*12 = $81,000 for a loss of -$51,552. Even on reserve people can fly well above min with only 2-3 days of extra work. 90h credit is very realistic on reserve if he is willing to drive in 2-3 times a month.
From here on I have used 80h instead which is a good average for the system w/o OT.
2nd $63,571 vs $87,360 = -$23,788
3rd $70,195 vs $91,200 = -$21,004
4th $78,931 vs $93,120 = -$14,188
5th $86,361 vs $93,120 = -$6,758
6th $91,622 vs $93,120 = -$1,497
-->>(Break even after a total loss of 120k!!!) Ouch. Of course better QOL.
7th $95,932 vs $93,120 = $2,812
8th $99,062 vs $93,120 = $5,942
9th $101,961 vs $93,120 = $8,841
10th $104,899 vs $93,120 = $11,779
If he does not upgrade it will be a loooong time before he truly breaks even, in other words, he makes up that lost 120k.
So he will match his ExpressJet pay in about 5-7 years depending on how hard he is willing to work.
If upgrade comes in 2015 as we all hope the above table continues as this:
5th $130,896 (break even here)
6th $135,898
7th $140,736
8th $144,653 (make up for the loss in pay around here)
9th $148,992
10th $153,466
Tops out at 185.32*80*12 = $177,907 still with an 80h line.
Here is the actual pay scale with the stepping on both seats for reference:
Captain Pay Rates
Years of Service DOS DOS+1 DOS+2 DOS+3 DOS+4
1 64.65 64.65 65.94 99.62 101.62
2 96.64 96.64 98.57 119.49 121.88
3 104.46 104.46 106.55 124.04 126.52
4 108.14 108.14 110.30 128.78 131.35
5 115.51 115.51 117.82 133.68 136.35
6 117.65 117.65 120.00 138.78 141.56
7 119.74 119.74 122.13 143.73 146.60
8 133.68 139.16 141.94 147.73 150.68
9 135.69 142.27 145.12 152.15 155.20
10 137.73 145.44 148.35 156.72 159.86
11 140.53 149.10 152.08 161.43 164.65
12 143.30 152.84 155.90 166.27 169.60
13 146.09 156.61 159.74 171.25 174.67
14 148.90 160.44 163.65 176.40 179.93
15 151.67 164.33 167.62 181.68 185.32
First Officer Pay Rates
Years of Service DOS DOS+1 DOS+2 DOS+3 DOS+4
1 38.50 38.50 38.50 38.50 38.50
2 61.31 66.22 67.54 70.63 72.05
3 66.38 71.69 73.12 76.21 77.73
4 71.39 77.10 78.65 82.22 83.86
5 76.35 82.45 84.10 88.19 89.96
6 78.77 85.07 86.77 93.57 95.44
7 80.77 87.23 88.98 97.97 99.93
8 82.60 89.21 90.99 101.16 103.19
9 83.19 89.85 91.64 104.13 106.21
10 84.22 90.96 92.78 107.13 109.27