Originally Posted by
slowplay
The early 5500 and pre-ship 622 series 757's will be 30 years old in 2016. I don't believe these aircraft can be wingletted due to a different wing structure than later aircraft. Including those aircraft, there will be around 75 757's over 25 years old that year. ...
I don't see how you make it to 2020 with just MD-90's. Pushing it out that far would make a huge CapEx hurdle during that decade as you tried to replace substantially all of our fleet over 10 years.
That is what I've been thinking also.
The typical narrow body domestic jet runs between 2,500 and 3,000 cycles a year. The 757's have been operated on longer legs than the average jet, but I's still bet they are getting + or - 1,500 cycles per anum. 30 * 1,500 is 45,000. The structural limit on the fuselage is 50,000.