Originally Posted by
tsquare
Wow.. I'm impressed.. ACL learned how to use the quote key
ACL likes "Multi-quote"
Originally Posted by
gloopy
So what is the WAG on efficiencies WRT "clean sheet" narrow bodies?
Wiki says that Boeing says that the 787 will be 20% more efficient than the 767. If the 320 NEO is 15% more efficient than the current 320/73N, just how much more is there to get even if they cloned/scaled the 787 to 737 size?
Common fleet, quicker availability and fewer things to go wrong versus a true "clean sheet" are very significant advantages. Also, where will fuel be in the late 20 teens? All signs point to nowhere for crude to go but up on a multitude of fronts from currency devaluation to global demand to geo-political restrictions to self imposed carbon based wealth redistribution schemes to name a few. Can we afford to sit on the sidelines and pass up 15% in the hopes that yet another paperware/vaporware jet to be named later comes along...and for what...that additional 5%, maybe?
I would not count out the 320NEO, especially if waiting on Boeing to make one based on what they have said about it. The 320 NEO, IMHO, is a very strong contender.
What the two major aircraft makers have been saying for a 787/350 type of narrow body clean sheet design is a 20-25% (min) improvement over current models. The composite type barrel that is used on the wb jets needs to be improved on a little more for it to have the durability for a nb jet. (cycle life) If they can get there, they are looking at airframes that do not have corrosion issues, and well as a magnatiude of other benefits. The other components need to mature a little more as well. Boeing and Airbus say that the technology will mature enough to make a viable design in the 2015-2017 time frame with deliveries after 2020.
5-10% (min) improvements may not seem like a lot, but remember that these are all guesses, and if they are better, no airline can afford to be wrong on them. Owning jets that miss this mark will require airlines to reinvest to keep up. The benefits of buying cheap will not be there when comparing the reworked 73N and the 320 compared to the clean sheet composites.
I do agree that the 320 will probably win out on a 73N Neo since the 73N requires some structural work to make the GTF work, whereas the 320 requires almost none.