The sentiment is that hiring should be going gangbusters by 2012. They say, “Demographics is just history that hasn’t happened yet.” In other words, there WILL be retirements. In order to keep the same number of airplanes flying, the airlines will HAVE to hire. Throw in some growth, and things look pretty darn good.

On the other hand....

Will airlines be able to afford to keep the same number of airplanes flying?

Oil is above $90 a barrel and rising. 2008 saw it spike to $147 a barrel. Many who forecast hiring trends under-appreciate the magnitude of this. If energy prices keep going up, and stay elevated for any length of time, it will surely have an impact on the economy as a whole. There’s another saying, “When the economy coughs, the airlines catch a cold.” So if the macro-economy is reigned in by high energy prices, the transportation sector could be in a lot of trouble. So watch energy prices very closely, that is where the Big Story is.

Worst case scenario is that the retirements are simply absorbed within an oil-starved, shrinking industry. Best case is that we will see a hiring bull market unlike anything since the early 1960’s. Forces that are far stronger than any airline’s Board of Directors, or any FAA rule making bureaucrat, will eventually answer the question. For goodness sakes, let’s all hope oil doesn't get too pricey.

Oh, one more thing. You might also get your hands on the May 2010 issue of Air Transport World magazine, the cover story was “Loosing it’s Luster.” They devoted much of the magazine to hiring trends. They focused on how few people even enter the profession these days. Somewhere in there they featured a study that concluded legacy airlines may eventually run short of qualified applicants. Legacy airlines!

“Prediction is very hard, especially about the future.” -- Yogi Berra