Originally Posted by
cruiseclimb
A USAF LTC from Personnel attended the Sep Air Inc conference in DC. He was there to gather intel on where the industry is going and how the USAF needs to plan it's retention. If you know what to look for, it's great information. The way I read it, if you're in the USAF, stay (if you can stomach the deployments) because the bonuses are going to get better. If you're starting out, there is lots of growth for the future.
The AF is a little late with planning retention, but it doesn't suprise me. As said above, the floodgates are open and lots of AF pilots are taking advantage of it (mostly the airlift/tanker world). I took advantage of the Palace Chase program and got out with 7 years left of service commitment and there were at least a dozen more approved at my base alone over the past year or so. The AF is trying to do more with less, as if we haven't been doing it already.
Naturally, bonuses will probably go up if they figure out they're in desperate need of pilots in about 5-10 years (which there will be, big time!), but the pilot bonus is already $125,000 to sign for another 5 years ($25k a year in your pay) and hasn't changed for quite some time. Unfortunately, once you meet your flying gate-month requirement, it gets harder and harder to land flying assignments and if you do land an assignment with a flying squadron, you'll definitely get put into job where you do not fly very often (Ops-O, Chief of Stan/Eval, Chief of Command Post, Chief of this, Chief of that, etc...). The Air Force only needs you to fly for your first 10 years (roughly 3 flying assignments). With assignments now going to 4 years for officers instead of 3 (another way for them to save money), it may get even harder to land more than 3 flying assignments. There comes a point in your active duty AF career where they want you to be a leader, not a line pilot and that is right about at your 10-12 year service point. Flying airplanes in the military only advances your career so far and if you want to make rank (O-5 and beyond), you have to play the game. The pilots who take the bonus usually don't fly/deploy much anyway at that point. The typical Major type may do his/her one 60-120 day staff deployment as an Ops Officer, but he/she most likely will not be gone 220+ days a year as a line pilot. I've known Major types who've burried themselves behind a desk and haven't deployed in 2 years. They fly once a month to stay current and that's it. They rarely go TDY, even on a 1-2 week trip, but yet, they wear the flight suit and wings on their chest. Sad really, but that's the way it is.
Bottom line, the money is tempting, but if you want to fly airplanes for a living, going to the guard/reserves and pursuing the commercial world is the way to go. If you want the whole person military experience, take the bonus and do your 20 years. This doesn't mean you cannot get back into the flying world after sitting behind a desk for 4-6 years, but what do the airlines like to see? Recency of experience.