Originally Posted by
iaflyer
Very interesting.
Airbus would offer, I'm assuming, the A321, A320 and A319. The problem is that the neo (new engine option/offer) isn't supposed to be available until 2016, which is a little outside the 2013 date. That's the efficiency they would want to buy. Cheaper to buy used A320s.
Boeing could offer the 737-900 as a 757 replacement (large narrowbody), and I guess the 737-800 as a medium narrowbody, and the 737-700 as the small narrowbody. Again, not very efficient, older technology.
I'm going to guess that the "narrowbody" replacement is actually near term for our oldest domestic 757s and later for the oldest 320s in the fleet.
My money is on a large 320-family order split between early 321/sharklets and latter 320neo...
The 321/sharklets replace older 757 on transcon and Hawaii flying
The later 320neo in 2016+ will be a fleet renewal to replace the oldest 320s.
- The 321 with sharklets comes out this year.
- With the load alleviation software it has enough gain in MTOW to fly westbound transcons and do West coast Hawaii flying.
- With the current CFM the 321 with sharklets offers a 15%/seat improvement on fuel burn over the 757, that's huge.
Down the road you add the 32Xneo and there's an additional 12-16% burn improvement depending on PW1000 or CFM-LEAPX.
Airbus needs a big order for current 320 families to demonstrate the competitiveness of the current generation before the new 320neo series comes out in 2016...
As for Boeing, their current narrowbody designs are maxed out. The 737 reengining would be a band-aid solution, what Boeing really needs is an all new narrowbody jet. The current 737-900 doesn't have the legs to do transcons and doesn't offer the same utility as a 757 or an A321 with sharlets would...
Cheers
George