This is something I have pondered very carefully, and have informally surveyed numerous SKW captains who are senior to me. There are a lot of ten year+ guys who swear they are never leaving...I think a large percentage of them really mean it. This puts me in the dilemma of being very junior in the west forever or commuting east.

Assuming the regional industry stays mostly status quo (little or no growth) I suspect a jet upgrade at SKW might be ten years for today's new hire. Good chance of quicker upgrade on the EMB, assuming that they don't get rid of them like they keep threatening to. That might be five years or even less.

The rumored massive mainline retirements and pilot shortage will only help the situation if there are no economic or other industry crises. Also be aware that if the CA's don't move on to mainline, they will have to hire regional FO's...you might see guys at SKW who would like to upgrade but are not moving because all the mainline hiring attrition is happening below them! If mainline starts hiring FO's in a wholesale fashion they will have to shift their selection process to be less focused on flight time and more focused on the whole person. In this scenario a mediocre human being who has lots of flight time might lose out to a an FO with 1000 RJ SIC hours, a college degree, good grades, and extracurricular/volunteer activities (and a winning personality).

I am particularly concerned about oil...as the global economy warms up that is headed on one direction only.

Basically it's going to be a balance between mainline hiring/regional attrition vs. oil prices.